Signal Feed

cytat: „the liquidity drained by the four capital raisings will amount to just two months of payouts" (s. 1)

cytat: „index trackers will be forced to buy shares in a company that has only been trading for a couple of weeks" (s. 1)

cytat: „if the stock performs poorly, the light will shine more brightly on governance concerns" (s. 1)

cytat: „that threshold is still 70bp away" (s. 1)

cytat: „the key drivers of India's growth story are looking shakier than at any time since the pandemic" (s. 1)

cytat: „India is showing no sign of emulating the East Asian development model" (s. 1)

cytat: „unproductive spending threatens to weaken public finances and dampen infrastructure spending" (s. 1)

cytat: „A balance-of-payments crisis is not on the cards, especially given that the Reserve Bank of India holds nearly US$700bn in foreign exchange reserves" (s. 1)

cytat: „the Iran war oil shock may have actually freed up liquidity for financial markets" (s. 1)

cytat: „countries such as Turkey, South Korea and India will most likely be selling US treasuries to stockpile oil" (s. 1)

cytat: „the addition of several trillion-dollar companies will de facto trigger selling in other index constituents" (s. 1)

cytat: „a bet on semiconductors today is a bet on China not closing the technology gap for years to come" (s. 1)

cytat: „will the enthusiasm for all things semiconductor fade once equity markets offer pure plays on AI enthusiasm" (s. 1)

cytat: „it's not the two or three weeks Exxon's Chapman was warning about" (s. 1)

cytat: „That amounts to a major incentive for US president Donald Trump to clinch a deal" (s. 1)

cytat: „Some controls on solar tech seem likely, now that the industry meets the CAS report's criteria." (s. 5)

cytat: „The retroactive action is unusual... the point is to warn other companies." (s. 6)

cytat: „FDI in R&D and design services soared 108.4% YoY... foreign capital increasingly directed toward innovation." (s. 7)

cytat: „TCL has now overtaken LG in the premium segment, and Samsung in Mini LED sales." (s. 8)

cytat: „US employment is no longer growing, but it is not yet contracting" (s. 1)

cytat: „with AI boosting productivity and earnings, many business managers would remain optimistic" (s. 2)

cytat: „continued rise of the stock market will support US consumption" (s. 2)

cytat: „deploying large amounts of capital into Europe challenging" (s. 6)

cytat: „less than a decade later, that number has dropped to roughly one child per woman" (s. 2)

cytat: „if Trump fails to deliver... the obvious risk is that next time around Americans vote for a Bernie Sanders-type figure" (s. 5)

cytat: „investors in Asia can look forward to living in less interesting times." (s. 3)

cytat: „Brussels increasingly views Chinese competition as a macroeconomic shock that needs to be faced down." (s. 5)

cytat: „Russia's economy could support Putin's war effort for years to come; yet only at the cost of impoverishing the Russian people." (s. 8)

cytat: „accumulate larger inventories of industrial commodities, energy and food" (s. 3)

cytat: „the Chinese decisions... suddenly look prescient" (s. 2)

cytat: „delivery schedules for weapons ordered from the US are being pushed back" (s. 2)

cytat: „outside the AI effect, Europe is behaving little differently from global peers" (s. 2)

cytat: „IT sector accounts for just 9.2% of MSCI Europe's market capitalization" (s. 1)

cytat: „it is already pushing activity lower and inflation higher" (s. 2)

cytat: „it seems unlikely that parents would let their one and only child throw stones at the police" (s. 5)

cytat: „filling new construction jobs is one thing. Creating service industry jobs is another" (s. 3)

cytat: „perhaps—if China proves lucky—it will be a problem that generates new opportunities" (s. 5)

cytat: „yields were now above the inflation rate" (s. 2)

cytat: „China had indeed awakened and, as a result, Japan was no longer competitive" (s. 2)

cytat: „the only solution was—surprise, surprise—to again devalue the yen, this time against the renminbi" (s. 2)

cytat: „he cannot unless something else changes to make it possible" (s. 3)

cytat: „shrinking the Fed's balance sheet is the wrong goal, and reducing resilience of banking system is the wrong means" (s. 5)

cytat: „this would represent a major change in the way the Fed operates" (s. 7)

cytat: „massive gold revaluation that raises money for the Treasury without raising taxes" (s. 9)

cytat: „nondisruptive for financial markets" (s. 9)

cytat: „the probability that the current talks will lead to a lasting peace is at most 25%" (s. 3)

cytat: „A deal will see oil prices fall and stocks rally" (s. 3)

cytat: „Economic pressure will not quickly bring the Iranian regime to its knees" (s. 2)

cytat: „South Korean shipbuilders stand to benefit the most and could resume their rally" (s. 2)

cytat: „Rising US Navy maintenance, repair and overhaul contracts are supporting Korean shipbuilders" (s. 2)

cytat: „South Korea could use its growing role in the US shipbuilding industry as leverage to mitigate some of these trade risks" (s. 3)

cytat: „Beijing has shown a willingness to act against firms seen as supporting a US-led anti-China coalition" (s. 3)

cytat: „we are in a bear market for OECD government bonds, and it has only just begun" (s. 1)

cytat: „buying the bonds of vulnerable countries in the next recession may not be such a great idea" (s. 2)

cytat: „permanent allocation to fossil energy producers" (s. 3)

cytat: „initially, the recovery is likely to continue to center on HEVs" (s. 2)

cytat: „between 2021 and 2025, Chinese brands grew their share of the European BEV market from 3% to 11.5%" (s. 4)

cytat: „Chinese companies becoming embedded in Europe's EV production base" (s. 5)

cytat: „France and the UK... stand out as combining elevated debt levels with poor debt dynamics." (s. 2)

cytat: „Europe's fiscal geography used to be simple... no longer fits reality." (s. 2)

cytat: „non-AI capex, including in 'strategic' industries, is likely to remain soft" (s. 3)

cytat: „if the AI boom rolls over... the outlook for US economic growth... will darken rapidly" (s. 1)

cytat: „relationship is in much better place than anyone expected a year ago" (s. 1)

cytat: „big winner overall is Xi Jinping and China" (s. 1)

cytat: „most dangerous time for Taiwan would be in 2028" (s. 1)

cytat: „no breakthrough on pricing, but getting closer" (s. 1)

cytat: „the semiconductor sector is now more than 5.5 times the size of the energy sector" (s. 3)

cytat: „ever growing 'rolling bubbles' around all things tech" (s. 1)

cytat: „a 30-year CGB has delivered essentially the same performance as gold" (s. 6)

cytat: „somebody has been managing down the volatility of Asian exchange rates against the renminbi" (s. 5)

cytat: „the coexistence of two worlds: one stable—Asia and emerging markets—and one unstable—the OECD" (s. 9)

cytat: „today suggests buying Chinese equities and selling Chinese bonds" (s. 8)

cytat: „the message today is to sell eurozone equities and buy CGBs" (s. 9)

cytat: „Indians' preference for gold is bearish for the rupee" (s. 1)

cytat: „the solution is relatively simple; it worked beautifully in France" (s. 3)

cytat: „India's previous attempts to monetize the country's gold savings have been too miserly" (s. 3)

cytat: „crack spreads collapsing anytime soon... hard to imagine" (s. 2)

cytat: „over the past five years, balanced funds have failed to keep up with US inflation" (s. 7)

cytat: „after 33 consecutive months of PPI deflation, China seems to be turning a corner" (s. 4)

cytat: „renminbi has gained some 3% against the US dollar despite widening spreads" (s. 5)

cytat: „2026 will be yet another poor year for US government bond investors" (s. 6)

cytat: „30-year Japanese government bonds... yields are fast approaching 4%" (s. 6)

cytat: „emerging markets have recently stopped underperforming relative to developed markets" (s. 12)

cytat: „contribution from capex on software and IT equipment... close to 80% of GDP growth" (s. 12)

cytat: „software seems like a dangerous place to deploy capital" (s. 14)

cytat: „investors are questioning the long-term credibility of fiscal and monetary policies" (s. 1)

cytat: „When that anchor drags, as it appears to be doing now, the effect will be felt in other markets." (s. 1)

cytat: „emerging markets are facing less market pressure than developed economies" (s. 1)

cytat: „the probability of a fresh supply squeeze, another leg up in oil prices... grows with every week." (s. 1)

cytat: „Final determinations could follow within the next two months, with new tariffs... likely in the second half of 2026." (s. 1)

cytat: „Malaysia... declared its deal to pay a 19% tariff 'null and void' after the Supreme Court decision." (s. 1)

cytat: „sites sold over the last three years are expected to produce just 6,000 units annually" (s. 1)

cytat: „Hong Kong re-emerged as the world's leading venue for initial public offerings last year" (s. 1)

cytat: „could spur a flood of capital raising activity" (s. 1)

cytat: „anything linked to the rollout of artificial intelligence capital spending and semiconductors has ripped higher" (s. 1)

cytat: „Tencent is currently trading at roughly 10.5x EV/EBITDA and 12x cash flows" (s. 1)

cytat: „the renminbi has risen by almost 6%. That 6% is now the new hurdle for capital outflows" (s. 2)

cytat: „the first positive monthly PPI reading since June 2023, ending a 33-month deflationary stretch" (s. 2)

cytat: „companies like CATL, BYD, Xiaomi and Hesai are now producing best-in-class products" (s. 2)

cytat: „both sides have now established that they have tools" (s. 1)

cytat: „Beijing wants to hold onto H200 licenses for just a little longer" (s. 5)

cytat: „Micron remains really exposed to China's critical minerals chokepoint" (s. 3)

cytat: „suspended until November 9th, conveniently the day after midterm elections" (s. 9)

cytat: „notion that you can change what China's doing seems to have vanished" (s. 13)

cytat: „price stability is the North Star" (s. 1)

cytat: „breakeven inflation rates likely to test this resistance level before retreating" (s. 1)

cytat: „investors should buy bonds only when yields are well above 4.5%—preferably above 5.25%" (s. 1)

cytat: „the eurozone economy is adjusting in an orderly fashion, and is not falling into a full-blown crisis" (s. 1)

cytat: „this is not 2022; the natural-gas-to-electricity transmission channel... is not operating today" (s. 1)

cytat: „substantial probability of an 'insurance' rate hike at the council's next meeting on June 11" (s. 1)

cytat: „keeps the door open to a return to the pre-Iran reflationary dynamic" (s. 1)

cytat: „We are currently in an unstable monetary system... gold has returned as the main reserve of value" (s. 1)

cytat: „the most important return-to-the-mean trade absolutely imploded" (s. 1)

cytat: „the collapse of OECD bond markets is likely far from finished" (s. 1)

cytat: „almost inevitable that macroeconomic adjustment to lower growth, higher inflation is on the cards" (s. 1)

cytat: „share of foreign ownership of Indian equities... lowest I think it's been in my lifetime" (s. 1)

cytat: „supply and demand moves to illicit channels" (s. 1)

cytat: „India does have a few levers to avoid a full-blown foreign exchange crisis" (s. 1)

cytat: „the slope from minus 2.4% in October 2025 to plus 2.8% in April 2026 is a regime change in motion" (s. 1)

cytat: „consolidated, disciplined sectors are now seeing margin expansion" (s. 1)

cytat: „Western world's shift from imported deflation to imported inflation" (s. 1)

cytat: „expectations are low for this week's summit in Beijing" (s. 1)

cytat: „some chance (say one in three) that nebulous Board of Investment could be set up" (s. 1)

cytat: „this is one area where Washington has more leverage" (s. 1)

cytat: „Beijing would see the passage of MATCH Act as violation of agreed moratorium" (s. 1)

cytat: „the last time this belief seemed so prevalent was during 2008 'peak oil' fad" (s. 1)

cytat: „a 'rare earth for ASML lithography machines' deal would open the door to much lower chip prices" (s. 1)

cytat: „will investors fund those IPO purchases by selling other assets such as the Nasdaq index" (s. 1)

cytat: „these plans now seem deeply compromised" (s. 1)

cytat: „investor positioning against UK assets could hardly be more extreme" (s. 1)

cytat: „even some initial hints of such a debate could be very bullish for sterling and UK assets" (s. 1)

cytat: „taxing the whole population... is deception to pretend that merely 'taxing the rich' can raise enough money" (s. 1)

cytat: „inventories are on track to approach operational stress levels by early June" (s. 1)

cytat: „spot prices spike to US$130–150/bbl in maximum pain scenario" (s. 1)

cytat: „months between buffer exhaustion and engineering solutions going live will be a time of compressed demand" (s. 1)

cytat: „the long end of the curve does not appear to be pricing this tail at all" (s. 1)

cytat: „US$7.6trn parked in US money market funds is more than seven times larger than projected global AI capex in 2027." (s. 1)

cytat: „building of AI data centers is worsening shortages of construction workers, delaying some housing projects." (s. 1)

cytat: „global investors were still net buyers of US$113bn in US assets as of February 2026." (s. 1)

cytat: „global automakers are now becoming more capable to deliver more competitive EV models" (s. 1)

cytat: „EV market is still dominated by Chinese EV makers delivering more competitive models" (s. 1)

cytat: „adding some extra cost for those global automakers" (s. 1)

cytat: „that threshold is still 70bp away" (s. 1)

cytat: „it is barely benefiting US GDP. The reason is that most of this equipment is produced abroad and imported" (s. 1)

cytat: „the Brazil-Korea equity pairing remains a preferred trade" (s. 1)

cytat: „US net electricity generation is starting to expand after nearly two decades of stagnation" (s. 1)

cytat: „there are at least two reasons to believe Asia will avoid a full-blown financial crisis" (s. 1)

cytat: „Beijing appears to be using energy exports as a diplomatic tool" (s. 1)

cytat: „if the energy shock continues through the summer, these forecasts will begin to look far too optimistic" (s. 1)

cytat: „Chinese companies are best positioned to benefit from the bonanza." (s. 1)

cytat: „15% of cars sold in the UK were Chinese brands" (s. 1)

cytat: „India eased restrictions on investments in electronics, capital goods and solar cell sectors." (s. 1)

cytat: „maintaining long energy positions remains a much better hedge" (s. 1)

cytat: „Owning energy stocks in jurisdictions where policymakers are less likely to meddle... makes most sense." (s. 1)

cytat: „A very positive US-China summit would likely go a long way towards calming market fears." (s. 1)

cytat: „through low rates, the central bank engineers a substantial transfer of wealth" (s. 1)

cytat: „Low rates lead to recurrent financial crises... A new one is probably overdue." (s. 1)

cytat: „geopolitics and weather effects seem set to combine to deliver a LEM outcome" (s. 1)

cytat: „low and falling grain prices have been a key contributor to the overall global deflationary environment" (s. 1)

cytat: „the main implication is to expect higher interest rates and to remain short eurozone duration." (s. 1)

cytat: „the full effect only showing up in late 2027 or early 2028" (s. 1)

cytat: „only two of those channels are active, and both are operating at a smaller scale." (s. 1)

cytat: „the UAE may find itself grappling with a lower oil price and uncomfortably short of allies in an unstable neighborhood." (s. 1)

cytat: „Pakistan retains the support of enough friendly creditors to forestall an imminent sovereign crisis." (s. 1)

cytat: „essentially, it will be Chinese wine with a European label." (s. 1)

cytat: „the base case is that the Fed will stick to its 2% inflation target" (s. 1)

cytat: „it's a very Trump policy... seems highly likely to happen" (s. 4)

cytat: „the biggest potential for change is actually probably in the last three" (s. 2)

cytat: „gold prices could easily [fall] from around US$4,575 today to US$2,500 or lower" (s. 1)

cytat: „the FOMC is unlikely to simply do Trump's bidding" (s. 1)

cytat: „Powell's continued presence on the committee does not preclude interest rate cuts" (s. 1)

cytat: „why would the Fed take on more credit risk so that foreign countries do not have to hold treasuries?" (s. 1)

cytat: „they want to signal to the world, especially their neighbors, that UAE is an ally" (s. 1)

cytat: „requires foreign countries to own treasuries... swap lines actually discourage holding treasury" (s. 1)

cytat: „The US economy is entering a phase of jobless growth" (s. 1)

cytat: „actions under Trump would likely skew toward outcomes that favor US equities and corporate credit markets" (s. 1)

cytat: „companies serving immigrant populations are likely to face strain" (s. 1)

cytat: „the Fed is monetizing US deficits by creating and lending dollars to 'bail out' the UAE" (s. 1)

cytat: „the US bond market and the US dollar will break down. When? I do not know. But I know it is coming." (s. 1)

cytat: „I would certainly hope that the exchange rate moves quickly below CNY6 to the US dollar" (s. 1)

cytat: „I keep my gold positions, my cash in renminbi or, for the more speculative and very patient, in yen" (s. 1)