European gas prices have spent the Hormuz crisis pressing against an invisible cap. Each escalation lifted the market, but not far enough. Dutch TTF, the European benchmark, kept returning to the same awkward line around €50/MWh.The cap was
Brussels’ Gas Market Task Force says algorithmic and AI-driven trading now dominates natural gas benchmarks. The EU Commission wants regulators to watch it more closely, without reining it in.The Gas Market Task Force (GMTF), created by the
The European gas market is not ignoring the de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It is doing something stranger: pricing a high-confidence bet that the chokepoint will substantially reopen before the disruption does lasting damage.The
Dutch TTF, the EU gas price benchmark, has settled into an uneasy equilibrium below €50/MWh. But Asian LNG prices are floating well above that, pulling flexible Atlantic cargoes east at the precise moment Europe needs stronger summer inflow
I sat down with Energy Flux podcast partner Victor Ponsford yesterday to discuss stalled US-Iran diplomacy, the implications of differing Hormuz reopening scenarios, natural gas price volatility, energy market manipulation, and the outlook
European gas prices are pushing towards their highest level of May. Dutch TTF has spent the past month trapped in a narrow range, held between a war-premium floor and a Hormuz normalisation ceiling. That ceiling is about to be tested.A hand
In late March, hedge funds built their biggest net long position in TTF history. Then, with war still raging and the bullish case for gas still intact, they began to cut it back. That contradiction is the starting point of this piece, and i
✍️This is a special guest post co-authored by Gareth Miller and Seb Kennedy Article summary 🔽 A sharper shock than 2022. Practically zero LNG has transited Hormuz since 1 March, 15 Mt lost in two months; a faster run rate than 2022’s Russia
The European natural gas market is facing a contradictory reality from prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.A months-long closure of this vital LNG export route presents asymmetric upside risk to gas markets throughout 2026, and probab
Yesterday, Pakistan issued its first spot tender since December 2023. Pakistan LNG Limited wants three cargoes of approximately 140,000 m³ each, delivery at Port Qasim between 27 April and 14 May. Bids close today.Pakistan went twenty-eight
After a short break, Victor Ponsford and I reconnected on the Energy Flux podcast.We discussed the latest diplomatic developments in the US-Iran war, ongoing tensions surrounding the double blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and the deepenin
Ras Laffan partially destroyed. QatarEnergy in extended force majeure. Hormuz LNG transits doubly paralysed. The Israel-Iran-US war grinding fitfully through its second month. And front-month TTF closed Wednesday at €41.399/MWh — marginally
Following user feedback, I have implemented several major improvements to the Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model, which was released on Tuesday alongside a free-to-read Deep Dive.The biggest single change is a more dynamic treatment of
The global LNG market has entered a phase of extreme uncertainty where outdated narratives go to die.For the last 18 months or so, the consensus trade was simple: a wall of new supply was coming. The United States, Canada and Qatar would fl
After six bloody and bruising weeks of warfare in and around the Persian Gulf, the United States has agreed to accept Iran’s 10-point ceasefire proposal as a “workable basis” for peace talks. The magnitude of this defeat deserves to be stat