A market at war with itself

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Ras Laffan partially destroyed. QatarEnergy in extended force majeure. Hormuz LNG transits doubly paralysed. The Israel-Iran-US war grinding fitfully through its second month. And front-month TTF closed Wednesday at €41.399/MWh — marginally below where it settled on 2 March, the first trading day after hostilities broke out against Tehran.That is not a typo. The price of European gas is the same today as it was in the days after the bombs started falling. Every month Hormuz remains shut, the global LNG market loses roughly seven million tonnes of supply. Cumulative losses are deepening relentlessly towards 60 million tonnes by December. And prices are sliding sideways.Aside from the human tragedy unfolding across the Persian Gulf, the deflation of energy commodities in the face of what was supposed to be an unprecedented supply-side shock — a dislocation that eclipses Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — is, frankly, befuddling. It challenges every reflex an analyst or trader has trained into themselves over the past four years.So we owe it to ourselves to ask honestly: is the mispricing thesis Energy Flux has spent weeks building still intact?The short answer: yes, but it needs examining under a brighter light. This edition of the Chart Deck — 99 slides of TTF and JKM curves, fund positioning, inter-basin spreads, netback economics, vessel tracks and proprietary model outputs — is the forum for that examination. Sign up for 💥 Energy Flux 💥 Fiercely independent energy market analysis Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anyti…