War vs. Glut: The Great LNG Reckoning

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The global LNG market has entered a phase of extreme uncertainty where outdated narratives go to die.For the last 18 months or so, the consensus trade was simple: a wall of new supply was coming. The United States, Canada and Qatar would flood the market, loosen balances and drag prices lower. Then war arrived, the Strait of Hormuz slammed shut, two Qatari trains were blown up, and that clean, comforting story of abundance collapsed under the weight of a destabilising global reality.Now the market is being asked to price two opposing truths at once.On one side sits an extraordinary wartime supply shock, with Gulf exports constrained and uncertainty hanging over every vessel movement, repair schedule and diplomatic headline. On the other sits a vast queue of LNG projects that still promises to reshape global gas balances, albeit on capital-intensive infrastructure timelines rather than social media timelines.That tension now defines the market. So we built a tool to measure it.Today, Energy Flux launches the Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model: a premium scenario engine that allows readers to quantify the collision between lost Middle East supply and incoming global LNG capacity.The model comes with pre-loaded assumptions that provide insightful conclusions in their own right. But the true value lies in the model’s interactive functions. Users can input their own assumptions, intelligence and market judgement to generate unique LNG supply projections.Load up the model Sign up for 💥 Energy Flux 💥 Fiercely independent energy market analysis Subscribe Email sent! Check you…