We argued recently that official support for renminbi internationalisation has increased over the past few years. But top-level rhetoric does not tell us much about what has motivated the shift. It might also be a lagging reflection of the
IT IS WELL documented that Bank of England Governor Bailey is a historian by training. As such, Bailey might be expected to lean on his background from time to time, such as in his recent speech on AI.But being a historian does not give Bai
After nearly a decade of limited progress, RMB internationalisation appears to have re-accelerated since 2024. The context appears highly supportive of continued progress: the renminbi has been appreciating since last summer as China’s bala
China has been stuck in deflation since late 2024. The consensus suggests it is persistent. However, inflation has accelerated since last summer. And we believe China may have shifted from a one-sided deflation regime to a two-sided inflati
Amongst the highlights of the Exante Data 10th Anniversary conference in New York at the end of March was the speech by the Bank of England’s external MPC member Alan Taylor. Taylor’s speech was an important intervention after the sell-off
As well as meeting friends, colleagues, and clients, one week ago the Exante 10th Anniversary conference brought together insightful speakers to reflect on the past decade and contemplate structural themes that may drive the decade ahead. N
Exante Data was founded 10 years ago, with a small team of very hard working analysts, and a few high profile clients.A lot has changed since 2016, and we are marking our 10Y Anniversary by hosting a major macro conference in New York on Ma
Chinese goods trade is huge and key to understanding China’s economic interactions with the world. Most analyses focus on the implications for foreign industries of the cheap and competitive products produced in China. In this note, however
AFTER SIX MONTHS or more of fiscal confusion in the United Kingdom leading up to the Autumn Statement we can breathe again, if only for a short time. But why is the fiscal debate in the UK such a mess? On reflection, there seems to be three
Being born into a white farming family in Rhodesia’s apartheid era affected people in different ways. In Peter Doyle’s case, it provided him with a lifelong respect and affection for African people and African Americans; and a lifelong wish
Chinese economic data is often criticized for painting an overly optimistic and stable picture of economic conditions in the country. One reason is that it tends to be difficult to reconcile apparent contradictions between Chinese data sets
Chinese banks have begun to provide substantial amounts of renminbi-denominated trade financing in the last 1-2 years. The current scale is not unusual per se. What is notable is that the financing now seems to be heavily renminbi-denominat
IT IS WELL KNOWN that Argentina has not hit international reserve accumulation targets in the latest Fund program, either the April initiation document nor, highly likely, the revised July version—critiques can be found here and here as wel
After surging during January-April, gold spent most of May-August stuck in the $3,200-$3,400 range. In late August, however, gold decisively broke out of the range to hit a new all-time high of >$3,600. The near-term catalyst for gold has b
Since 2022, two data sources on China’s goods trade balance have diverged substantially. The data on the goods trade balance published by China’s Customs Administration has been $189bn larger than that published by SAFE on a BoP basis in th
Earlier this week, I wrote a quick LinkedIn post about correlation analysis, with reference to Ray Dalio's “ban” on such analysis when at Bridgewater Associates during the Global Financial Crisis. This post, which went semi-viral, is posted
There are definite similarities between the situation facing Argentina today and in the 1990s:Both followed uncomfortably high inflation (though the late-1980s hyperinflation was worse than the more recent manifestation);They both follow pr
Careful flow analysis suggests an allocation shift away from the dollar may have peaked and will likely be a less dominant force in H2 compared to H1 2025.This does not necessarily mean that USD is set for recovery; rather, traditional fund
Recently, there has been speculation that China’s leader, Xi Jinping, might be on his way out. One US think tank, for example, writes that “Speculation is growing about a power struggle at the top of the Party” (link) and a professor argues
At the July FOMC press conference, Chair Powell noted in his opening statement that inflation “readings are little changed from the beginning of the year, although the underlying composition of price changes has shifted: services inflation