Before we get into today's report for paid subscribers, a quick note: you can find all of my livestream recordings here. If you are new, I would encourage you to binge through them at 2x speed to get the full macro context. We will continue
Today, Jaymes and I broke down the gamma squeeze setup developing in PURR and why call buying volume into Friday’s close was the highest we have seen to date in the name. When new information comes to light and positioning escalates, the th
I explained my entire thesis for PURR and the escalating probability of a gamma squeeze in this report. You should definately read it. In order to further explain these factors, I will be covering them in depth during the livestream tomorro
I strongly believe we are seeing a convergence in the flows of capital across every level of markets with an even greater concentration than I originally anticipated. The net result is a very high probability of having a gamma squeeze in my
Today, Jaymes and I released the full Hyperliquid funding rate dashboard, walked through why Hyperliquid is rewriting how data and leverage work globally, and broke down the Trader's Trilemma between edge, frequency, and risk capacity. Most
Today, Jaymes and I broke down 200 years of bear market history, the three archetypes of corrections, and why the current setup has a flavor of every major historical bear market without being a clean copy of any of them. Most people misdia
The Bubble PlayBook Livestream:Every bear market feels like the end of the world. None of them are. They follow three patterns: cyclical, event-driven, and structural. Once you can identify the pattern, you can map the duration, the depth,
The intentional deceptionThere is a continuous feed of disorienting news that is intentionally desensitizing you to the signal in markets, or even worse, manipulating your perception so you can’t tell what is true or what is false. All of u
Every macro thesis you read about China comes back to one question: can the yuan replace the dollar. The answer is no, and the reason is so structural that most analysts who get this wrong are working from a frame that does not actually des
Today, Jaymes and I broke down the dispersion between semiconductors and software, the cybersecurity unwind in Palo Alto and CrowdStrike confirming the February report, and the full earnings setup for Nvidia, Intuit, Workday, Home Depot, an
Today James and I walked through the full interest rate complex, the risk reward of rates across the curve, inflation risk by tenor, and how curve regimes connect directly to equities. Hyperliquid is bid on Coinbase, capitulating to the pro
Today, Jaymes and I mapped the entire macro liquidity framework, how AI is changing the transmission mechanism, and why this credit cycle melt up has more left in it than positioning is prepared for. Real interest rates are 30bps from going
Today, I mapped FX drivers, AI flows, and sector flows for every major country on a cross-border basis, and walked through why today’s CPI print is creating a small intraday pullback that does not change the structural setup. The first Hype
Today, Jaymes and I broke down the impossible trinity framework that sits underneath the entire credit cycle melt-up. Every country can only control two of three variables: independent monetary policy, capital mobility, and FX stability. Th
Today, I broke down every major growth and inflation data point and connected it to long term interest rates and asset prices. Real GDP is running at 2 percent, nominal at 6, and the Atlanta Fed Nowcast is at 3.7 with fixed investment addin
Today I went deep on cross asset vol, equity long short positioning, carry trades, and CTA flows. Vol has collapsed across equities, rates, and FX simultaneously, which mechanically forces vol targeting and risk parity funds to lever up int
Today, I went deep on how AI is functionally retooling the production function of the entire economy. This is the same setup as 2021, with one substitution: the constraint is no longer monetary; it is technological. AI is forcing capital in
The World Is Short VolatilityThe entire world is short volatility, and it has to be. In a system where change compounds faster than capital can react, non-participation is the greater risk. Sitting out is not safety. It is a slow, certain f
Today, I walked through the full yield curve framework with Jaymes Rosenthal and how each regime maps to the Fed’s policy error against growth and inflation. The PCE print came in with headline up 70bps MoM while core stayed contained, and
Today I went through the full FOMC setup with Jaymes Rosenthal, mapping the SOFR forward curve mechanics, the specific levels in the Z7 contract that determine where bonds, gold, silver, and EURUSD bottom, and how the move index has been de