Groundhog Strait

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After a short break, Victor Ponsford and I reconnected on the Energy Flux podcast.We discussed the latest diplomatic developments in the US-Iran war, ongoing tensions surrounding the double blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and the deepening impacts on energy markets.We also took some time to explore the Energy Flux Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model, which seeks to reconcile the loss of Middle East supply with new global LNG projects coming online over the next few years.Victor created three illustrative scenarios about the potential timing for a re-opening of Hormuz, first with partial transits only and later at full pre-war levels. The dates are all anchored around milestones in the US political calendar, and I enjoyed the conversation about how Iran’s enduring grip on Hormuz could become an election issue both in the midterms and possibly even beyond.We talked through the political and strategic considerations behind each eventuality, and decided to let listeners vote on their favourite scenario. In the next episode, we will share both the results of the poll and the outputs from the model for each scenario. The survey form is below. Here are the show links 👇🎧 Listen/watch on YouTube:🎧 Listen on Apple🎧 Listen/watch on Spotify📣Have your say: vote on Vic's three possible Hormuz re-opening scenarios, or suggest your own. Complete the survey below:On the next episode, we will share the results of the survey and reveal the modelling outcomes from each of these scenarios. Stay tuned!🎓 YouTube tutorialThe scenarios are a bit of fun, but the modelling behind it is a s…