Subscribe nowThe ageing reflexChina’s manufacturing success is creating gravitational forces that are reshaping the development paths available to EM economies. In this note, I’ll unpack what that means.Earlier in my career, there was a saf
Subscribe nowJust as macro traders had settled into the latest cottage industry of becoming temporary experts on AI, hyperscaler capex and the vulnerability of EM services exporters, a much older threat reasserted itself. We pivoted abruptl
11 Jan 2026Subscribe nowAs macro risk-takers looked ahead to the usual new-year grind, with P&Ls reset to zero (or worse), the leader of the free world was holding court at Mar-a-Lago. Tariff effects were fading into the rear-view mirror an
In this note, I’ll discuss:The USD bounce - which I see as a lull that led to a position unwind.Sabotaging the USD revisited - I review the bear case for the USD.Tariffs and Immigration policy - I view these as brand damage and a productivi
Subscribe nowSitting in the White House Oval Office, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa kept his composure while Donald Trump casually tossed false claims of genocide at him. The man who rails against fake news once again supported his
Elgie holiday snapSubscribe nowEpcot, Rockets, and the Return of the Trump PutA badly timed family holiday to Florida this past week left me watching markets through a Chinese assembled iPhone, mainly in queues for rides at Disney. Being fl
Subscribe nowWe’re only a handful of weeks into the new US administration, but it feels like six months in terms of news flow. People talk about dog-years moving at 7x the rate; Trump-years seem even greater. Consuming policy announcements
The calendar has once again exerted its influence on markets and research production. Positive pnl's are reset to zero (negative ones not so much...) and inboxes are inundated with year-ahead outlooks. This isn't one of those. Here I will p
Image by DALL.E I didn’t intend to write a note until the end of the year, but clearly, recent events are overwhelmingly significant for EMFX. This will be a brief update on my initial thoughts on the consequences of the Red Wave and the re
Image from DALL-E.Subscribe nowSince my last note, we’ve seen significant developments across the macro landscape. The Fed kicked off its easing cycle in September with an aggressive 50bps cut, which prompted the market to price in a furthe
Image from DALL-E.Subscribe nowIt’s been an eventful first half of 2024 with lots to discuss, as we seemingly move towards the start of the easing cycle in the US, and with 6 months since my last note, it seems a good moment to take stock.A
Image generated by DALL-E (the first 7 iterations were worse I promise)12th Jan 2024Personal UpdateThis is my first EMFX macro note for many months. In the second half of 2023, I joined Argo Capital Management, which is an EM-focused Hedge
25th August 2023Subscribe nowIn this note, I discuss:EM FX in a negative global backdrop, tactical longs onlyRecent macro developmentsBRICS conference – Opportunism, obfuscation, and opposition to the US.China – adjusting to a new normalMon
Photo by Jeremy BishopSubscribe now11th August 2023This week I talk about the following.Surfing the waves – the recent sell-off in EMFX brings opportunitiesAugust macro developmentsEM Central BanksBRL and HUF – value and carryMonitorsThe po
28th July 2023Subscribe nowAfter a strong H1 for Emerging market FX, I write this outlook seeing some of the strongest levels of the year. This is a mainly a US-driven phenomenon, as we’ve seen progress on the inflation front without the ki
Photo by Erol AhmedSubscribe now30th June 2023At the end of H1 and with some holiday time coming up I want to review this year so far, reflecting on earlier thesis, with the hope of gaining insight into which views are still valid and which
23rd Jun 2023Subscribe nowIn a relatively quiet week for macro developments, I take the opportunity to lay out some longer-term thoughts on India. If you’re only interested in India, please feel free to skip past the first section, where I
Photo by Federico Burgalassi16Jun23Subscribe nowThis week I discuss:Strong reaction to benign outcomesMacro developments – US CPI, FOMC, China dataEM Central Banks – little expected for most, a lot expected from TurkeyTurkey Update – Projec
Photo by Harold MendozaSubscribe now9th June 2023This week I discuss:Loss of soft USD support for EMFXUpdated ThemesUpdated EMFX performance including TWI performance.Highlights from the Global PMIsPIX system in BrazilTurkey UpdateAt the be
26th May 2023Subscribe nowThis week I discussOutlook, market movesMacro developmentsCentral banksMarket MonitorsEl Nino and EM MacroThis week’s ranges gave an opportunity for more active trading in EMFX. These moves served as a prompt for m