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Japan Economy WatchRichard Katz2026-05-31
The Economist Cites Me on Japan's Anorexic Demand

Ethan Wu cites me in an Economist essay arguing that, despite rosy headlines, these three countries are “suffering from industrial rot.” He makes the following points:Northeast Asia’s export industries increasingly operate on two tracks. On

Japan Economy WatchRichard Katz2026-05-14
Bessent Hints BOJ Should Raise Rates to Boost Yen

Source: Based on data from WSJKey Points:In Tokyo, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave some support to Japan’s currency interventionHe also issued a thinly veiled hint that he “expects” BOJ to raise interest rates at its June meetingBesse

Japan Economy WatchRichard Katz2026-05-05
China’s Slowdown and the Myth of the Middle-Income Trap

Source: https://data.imf.org/-/media/iData/External-Storage/Documents/2F78EE59F79143A7921E5E203D3AAA80/en/WEOApr2026all.xlsx Note: This excludes countries with less than 3 million people and major oil exportersFLASH: The Ministry of Finance

Japan Economy WatchRichard Katz2026-04-28
In Rare 6-3 Vote, BOJ Delays Interest Rate Hike Again

Source: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/research_data/cpi/cpirev.xlsx Note: This shows the gap between prices at the cash register and what prices would have been if the government had not put additional subsidies on food and energy; 96%

Japan Economy WatchRichard Katz2026-04-20
Why Rates on Ultra-Long Gov’t Bonds Hit Record Levels

Source: http://www.mof.go.jp/english/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm Note: See text for explanationKey Points:The Bank of Japan will decide next Monday whether to raise the overnight rate 1% or wait until June to see how the Iran war

Japan Economy WatchRichard Katz2026-04-08
Correction and New Material On Who Gets A College Education

Source for all charts: Table A1.4 at https://stat.link/vur4y1An eagle-eyed professor pointed out that I had misread one of the OECD tables in my last post on education. I read the figures as showing the educational attainment of the parents

Japan Economy WatchRichard Katz2026-04-02
Inflation Hawks Given More Ammo by New BOJ Measurements

Source: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/research_data/cpi/cpirev.xlsx and https://www.e-stat.go.jp/en/stat-search/file-download?statInfId=000032103932&fileKind=1 Note: see text for explanation; 68% means these items include 68% of the hou

Japan Economy WatchRichard Katz2026-03-26
Restoring Equal Educational Opportunity

Source: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2011/09/education-reform-in-japan_g17a200a/5kg58z7g95np-en.pdf(Earlier this year, I ran several posts critiquing Sanae Takaichi’s industrial policy, saying that it avoide

Japan Economy WatchRichard Katz2026-03-23
Shunto Provides Little Evidence For BOJ To Hike Rates

Source: Press ReportsKey Points:· Early announcements suggest a 5.26% headline Shunto raise for the 16% of workers who are in unions in coming fiscal year, perhaps less (April through March 2027)· So far, that is translating into just a 3.8

Japan Economy WatchRichard Katz2026-03-11
Fossil Fuel Lobby Made Japan Hostage to Trump, Netanyahu, and Khamenei

Source: https://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/info/tsdl_e.htmIn case you haven’t noticed, this blog has a search icon at the upper right of the home page. All subscribers, paid or not, can use it find topics in all the prior 240 posts.One of the

Japan Economy WatchRichard Katz2026-03-08
Iran War Worsens BOJ’s Stagflation Dilemma, Postpones Rate Hike

Source: https://www.e-stat.go.jp/en/stat-search/file-download?statInfId=000032103932&fileKind=1 Note: See text for how new government energy subsidies are distorting measures of inflationKey Points:The Iran war heightens BOJ’s stagflation d

Japan Economy WatchRichard Katz2026-02-27
Japan Caught In Crossfire Of US-ChinaTrade War

Source: https://data.imf.org/en/datasets/IMF.STA:IMTS(While free subscribers will continue to get all my regular Posts, this is the last of the new Memos that I’ll send to free subscribers. After that, the Memos will only go to paid subscri