Quantum transits

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The European gas market is not ignoring the de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It is doing something stranger: pricing a high-confidence bet that the chokepoint will substantially reopen before the disruption does lasting damage.The disconnect between commodity pricing and Hormuz vessel movements has been visible for months. The harder question is how wayward the market’s bet on a swift resolution has become.In natural gas, how much assumed Hormuz recovery is implicitly priced into front-month TTF, Europe’s benchmark contract? How much missing LNG is the market effectively assuming will return? And how far would TTF have to re-rate if that assumption breaks?Energy Flux has built a new interactive framework to answer those questions.The TTF Hormuz Pricing Model back-solves the amount of Hormuz LNG throughput implied by the TTF price, then shows how that implied belief has moved since the waterway was operationally closed.The model rests on two user-defined bookends: one fair-value TTF price for durable reopening, and another for sustained closure.It does not tell you what to believe. It shows you what the price requires you to believe, based on your own assumptions. Sign up for 💥 Energy Flux 💥 Fiercely independent energy market analysis Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Under Energy Flux’s default settings, the result is stark: front-month TTF is priced as if the vast majority of pre-war Hormuz LNG flow is still economically available to the market, even though observed transit is running at barely 2–3% of …