The point of working1 is to produce enough value for the rest of society to be able to consume as many goods and services as we want for at least as long as we are alive.2 “Progress” is when people can buy more/better goods and services for
A barrel of Brent crude oil cost about $103, on average, in the month of March, up from $66/barrel in October 2025-February 2026. Thanks to sanctions, the price of Russian Urals crude was somewhat lower in the months before the war with Ira
I was fortunate to attend two fascinating conferences in the Bay Area last week, which I look forward to writing about soon.Tariffs, cloud companies’ insatiable demand for (imported) data center equipment, and the disruption to the flow of
It is convenient that Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta all reported their 2026Q1 results the night before the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published its initial estimate of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in January-March 2026. Th
I was only away in Yosemite for a week, but somehow that was long enough for the situation in the Gulf to go from “the U.S. is threatening to commit war crimes unless the Iranians open the Strait of Hormuz” to “the U.S. and Iran have a ceas
The average wage of the typical American worker rose by just 3% over the past six months on a seasonally-adjusted basis. That would be right in line with the pre-pandemic average, and notably slower than the steady annualized average growth
At current prices, the Russian government’s energy-related tax revenues are probably running about 3x the monthly average from December 2025-February 2026. If those prices hold for the rest of the year, total oil and gas tax receipts would
It is understandable why Federal Reserve officials decided not to let the war with Iran affect their monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The range of outcomes is so vast that it makes sense to wait until there are hard data on the respon
The striking thing about oil prices, given what is going on in the world, is how low they are.Crude oil exported from Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was equivalent to about 20% of global supply b
I have no insights into how the war with Iran will unfold—in common with the people in charge, apparently—nor am I an expert in commodity markets. But it does not take much expertise to see that any sustained reduction in exports from the G
Last week, the Supreme Court ruled that the arbitrary imposition of tariffs using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was illegal. But their reasoning was somewhat strange. Rather than address whether there are any ongoi
“Who pays the tariffs?” has been a surprisingly contentious question over the past year or so.Back in April, Steve Miran, who was then in charge of the Council of Economic Advisers, had argued that foreigners would bear the cost as their cu
Based on the data we’ve seen and the conditions here and around the world, the Board now thinks it will take longer for inflation to return to target and this is not an acceptable outcome…Our updated view, driven by the latest data is that
Russian military spending and other war-related expenditures surged last year even as oil and gas revenues fell, with the difference covered by a mix of higher taxes on the domestic non-O&G economy, cuts in non-military spending, public bor
According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, futures prices as of January 16 implied that there was no chance that the Federal Reserve will raise its short-term interest rate target band from 3.5%-3.75% over the course of 2026. Market prices impli
Japanese bond yields have been rising relentlessly over the past few years, especially at the longer maturities that were never directly targeted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Yields on long-term Japanese government debts are now higher than
The typical American worker’s wages have consistently been rising about 4% a year since early 2023, compared to about 3% a year in 2018-2019. That difference is not large, but it is large enough to explain why inflation is still running abo
Federal Reserve officials are more optimistic about the growth outlook, less worried about unemployment, and just as worried about inflation as they were six months ago. Yet the median official now expects that short term interest rates “un
Europe1 has a far larger population than the U.S. (~500 million vs. ~340 million) and an economy far larger than China’s ($26 trillion vs. $21 trillion). It also has a large and sophisticated manufacturing sector, with world-beating produce
The current U.S. administration has taken unprecedented steps to alienate allies and partners even as it reduces the appeal of living and investing in the U.S.While markets briefly seemed to be pricing in some of these changes in early Apri