Hi nice people, this is Alf.Sorry I disappeared from Substack for a good while but markets are crazy, the fund is growing nicely and it’s a huge amount of work.But no worries - I am back with a healthy dose of macro analysis for you.As an e
Hi, this is Alf - welcome back to The Macro Compass!Warsh is the new Fed Chair.I find it hilarious that people are calling him a hawk based on what he did 10-15 years ago. This is like looking at old pics of me with a head full of hair (sti
Hi everyone, and welcome back to The Macro Compass!‘’I compile statistics on my traders. My best trader makes money only 63 percent of the time. Most traders make money only in the 50 to 55 percent range. That means you’re going to be wrong
I am not long enough. You are not long enough.The global real-economy money printer is going to run very hot in 2026.The more spendable money global economies print, the higher the nominal growth impulse we are going to get.Central Banks ar
Warren Buffett once said that the most important investment you can make is in yourself. I can’t agree more.The financial industry is full of jargon, opacity and ivory-tower attitude which prevents practicioners from scaling up their knowle
Hi everyone - this is Alf.I hope you’re having a great day.My macro models have been suggesting a bi-modal framework to approach markets for the near future: Run It Cold Now (growth < expectations, and dovish Fed) and Run It Hot Later (grow
Hi everyone - this is Alf. I hope you're having a great day.‘’I compile statistics on my traders. My best trader makes money only 63 percent of the time. Most traders make money only in the 50 to 55 percent range. That means you’re going to
Hi everyone - this is Alf. I hope you're having a great day.The US economy and markets might face a double negative whammy over the next 2 months: a large reduction of the fiscal impulse and the aggressive rebuild of the Treasury General Ac
Amidst all the noise, markets haven’t had time to digest 5 key macro news:1) Elon Musk announces formation of ‘’America Party’’2) Speaker Mike Johnson: "We're gonna have a second reconciliation package in the fall, and a third in the spring
Hi everyone - this is Alf.I hope you're having a great day.Alongside with running my hedge fund, I work as a consultant and external advisor for some of the largest pension funds, asset managers, banks and funds in the world.Arrangements ar
Hi everyone - this is Alf.I hope you're having a great day.On Friday, the credit agency Moody’s downgraded the US rating by one notch to Aa1 (equivalent to AA+).By now, you’ve probably read tens of opinion pieces arguing this is the beginni
Hear, hear: the US Dollar is going down. Investors love to attach an ex-post narrative to any price action, and this time the blame was on Trump’s erratic policies, the reduced attractiveness of US assets, and ‘’China dumping’’. Two of thes
Hi everyone - this is Alf. I hope you're having a great day.‘’There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen’’ – Vladimir Lenin.Markets were sleepwalking into April 2nd before we had a decent sell-off in U
Hi everybody, Alf here - welcome back to The Macro Compass!Before we go into today’s piece, a short announcement.I advise several institutional investors on a bespoke basis.Clients include Canadian pension funds, one of the biggest tech com
Hi everyone, Alf here - welcome back to The Macro Compass!And now, to the piece.Our main macro thesis for the first half of 2025 is that another disinflationary wave will hit the US.We expect core PCE to annualize at or below 2% in H1 2025.
Next week will be crucial for markets as Trump is set to announce (or disappointingly not announce) tariffs.In this piece I will highlight the rationale behind my base case scenario and its impact on markets.Before we do that, I want to sha
Good morning, this is Alf - welcome back to The Macro Compass!I wish you a fantastic year ahead: follow your passions, keep learning, and don’t drink cappuccino after 11am.In this macro piece, we will cover the biggest market mover for H1 2
Looking back at the 2015-2021 period when I traded bond markets at a large bank, it was quite boring.Rates were mostly stuck around 0% at the front-end, and to make money you had to find small dislocations and monetize them with leverage ho
Hey, this is Alf speaking - welcome back to The Macro Compass!Given the large influx of paid subscribers at the previous round, we are extending our big discount also to our cheapest tier - The Long Term Investor.Thanks for reading The Macr
Good morning and welcome back to The Macro Compass. This is Alf writing.It’s almost been 3 years together now - and I loved every little bit of it.I treasure each and every supportive comment you threw at me, and vividly remember hitting 10