The slow grind higher

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European gas prices are pushing towards their highest level of May. Dutch TTF has spent the past month trapped in a narrow range, held between a war-premium floor and a Hormuz normalisation ceiling. That ceiling is about to be tested.A handful of stranded LNG cargoes have made it through the Strait of Hormuz. But they did not transit under anything resembling normal conditions.They sailed ‘in the dark’ with AIS transponders switched off, and reportedly after the governments of China and Pakistan each negotiated safe passage with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps.This is not what normalisation looks like. Rather, as Tehran seeks to cement its sovereignty over the contested waterway, we are witnessing the birth of a new normal: a permission-based regime for Middle East oil and LNG exports.Hormuz is Tehran’s ‘trump card’ and they are playing it to maximum effect. Constraining the supply of energy and critical feedstock to global markets is proving far more effective than empty nuclear threats ever could have.Washington is trapped between escalation and retreat, unable to stomach the political costs implicit in pursuing regime change, and unable to deliver a decisive outcome by blockading Iranian ports. That matters for gas because a prolonged stalemate is more damaging than a short closure and spectacular military-backed reopening.A semi-official, legally questionable permission-based transit system is awkward. It keeps the risk premium alive while demanding constant repricing across LNG flows, inter-basin spreads, European storage economics and fund positioning — all against a…