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Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2026-05-15
Thunderbolt: The Attack on Pearl Harbor

Japanese leadership in the Second World War enjoys noticeably lower name recognition than their German counterparts. Most people with a cursory knowledge of the war know the core German leadership group around Hitler - Himmler, Goering, Goe

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2026-04-08
The Insurgent Empire

As we cross the one month mark of the Israeli-American war on Iran, a sufficient corpus of data is emerging to contemplate the kinetic dynamics of the conflict. This is a very strange war. It is not merely the fact that the roster of combat

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2026-03-17
The Iran War: The Eagle and the Lions

Like most people in the western hemisphere, I woke on February 28 to an overwhelming rush of footage, reports, and rumors from the Middle East. The United States and Israel had launched a surprise attack on Iran overnight (after the markets

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2026-02-20
Sunrise: Japan's Leap for Empire

The Pacific War, fought between the Empire of Japan and the United States of America and her allies between 1941 and 1945, stands apart in the long annals of military history as an essentially unique conflict: a true sui generis war. The sc

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2026-01-21
The Great Greenland War

Most of my writing to this point has focused on the analysis of wars that have either already happened (sometimes very long ago) or are currently happening. Here, I’ll risk a slight deviation by attempting three theoretical histories of a w

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2025-12-12
Wolf Packs: Battle of the Atlantic

One of the hallmarks of the Second World War was the technological maturity and systematic application of military technologies which were still in their infancy during the first war. Tanks, which had previously been lumbering and mechanica

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2025-11-26
Hitler Ahoy: The Third Reich's Surface Fleet

The Sinking of the Bismarck, by Charles Edward TurnerWhen the Second World War began in September 1939, levels of preparedness varied widely across Europe, both across and within various leadership groups and institutions. War was met by th

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2025-10-27
Living Dangerously

The Russo-Ukrainian War seems to have been engineered in a laboratory to frustrate people with repetition and analytic paralysis. Headlines appear to be circulating on a choreographed loop, all the way down to the place names. Kaja Kallas a

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2025-10-15
Special Interview: Sean McMeekin

And now for something completely different. I have something very different and very exciting today, which I hope you will enjoy. Dr. Sean McMeekin is a name that readers may recognize from his regular appearance in my recommended reading s

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2025-09-17
The Treaty Mirage

A British graphic in 1939 showing battleships front and centerAs late as 1939, it was still possible for a citizen of Great Britain to take a global voyage and take pride in the readily apparent trappings of Britain’s global power. Boarding

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2025-08-13
Scraping the Barrel: Attrition and Cannibalization

Loitering in the ruins of PokrovskNote: This article will be relatively short compared to my standard offerings, but I wanted to get some thoughts on paper as the situation north of Pokrovsk develops. Ukraine is facing one of the worst oper

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2025-07-29
Under the Sea: Submarines in the Great War

The Sinking of the Linda BlancheThe outbreak of World War One delivered an astonishing blow to the collective psyche of political and military leadership in Europe, as the carnage of the war’s opening months shattered illusions about indust

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2025-07-08
Blood in the Water, Blood on the Beach

Anzac, the Landing, by George LambertAmong the many memoirs left behind by participants in the First World War, a ubiquitous motif is a profound sense of disorientation. The experience of the war was starkly different, depending on what nod

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2025-06-17
Russo-Ukrainian War: The Flaming Olive Branch

“It is impossible to hold an olive branch in one hand and fire a pistol with the other.”So quipped Wilhelm Solf, a diplomat with the Imperial German Foreign Ministry. As Europe groped its way through the mass casualties and civilizational e

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2025-06-05
Overthrowing Fate: Barbarossa Revisted

It is probably not a good sign when an article has to begin with an editorial note that breaks the fourth wall, but here we are. I have analyses of the frontline in Ukraine and a new entry in our naval history series currently in the works,

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2025-05-16
The Great War at Sea: Blockade and Battleship

The iconic imagery of World War One will always be centered on the trench and the howitzer: emblems of a futile and unfeeling ground war which consumed the young men of Europe by the tens and hundreds of thousands, exchanging battalions by

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2025-04-11
The North Sea Chessboard: Germany against Britain

If you ask someone to name the worst military or geostrategic blunders in history, the standard answers will tend to center on doomed invasions of the Russian interior, either in the form of Napoleon’s 1812 campaign or the Third Reich’s inv

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2025-03-28
Ukraine: Fighting to the Conclusion

The Russo-Ukrainian War is now three years old, and the third Z-Day, on February 24, 2025, was marked by a substantively different tone than prior iterations. On the battlefield, Russian forces stand significantly closer to victory than the

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2025-03-11
The Rise of the Dreadnought

HMS Dreadnought and Victory, by Henry MorganThe most famous warships in history tend to be known either for their wartime exploits or for their longevity and place of pride in their fleets. A few names that might come to mind would include

Big Serge ThoughtBig Serge2025-01-21
Ironclad: Modernity at Sea

The duel of the CSS Virginia and the USS Monitor: the first clash between ironclad warshipsThe Ship of Theseus is a very old thought experiment, relayed to us by Plutarch in his “Life of Theseus.” In its original formulation, Plutarch relat