A look through prior Middle East wars suggests a potential conflict with Iran would likely be a volatile "sell the news" event. Prior conflicts most directly impacted the U.S. economy through higher oil prices and increased economic uncerta
The market is significantly underpricing rate cuts as the rapid improvement of AI tools suggests a rising unemployment rate and continued disruption in the financial markets. AI tools are increasingly able to automate a range of tasks, so t
Japan's enormous foreign investment holdings put it in a position to both run loose fiscal policy and manage its currency depreciation risk. Prime Minister Takaichi's victory on Sunday gives her the opportunity to implement an expansionary
Warsh's quest to shrink the Fed's balance sheet implies fundamental changes in the banking system, money markets, and Treasury issuance. He would be restarting QT even through the Fed just began expanding its balance sheet to address pressu
Reider's jump to front runner in the Fed chair race is surprising, but his long held views show that he is the candidate most suited to a fiscal dominant world. Reider has a long career in asset management and is political outsider without
The President is poised to announce his pick for Fed Chairman as soon as this week and Kevin Warsh is now the leading contender. Warsh is a former Fed governor and noted hawk, but his views on Fed policy align with that of Secretary Bessent
The Administration's willingness to conscript the Government Sponsored Enterprises in its efforts to lower mortgage rates opens up a range of possibilities that directly impact markets and the economy. Fannie and Freddie Mac once held enorm
The economy enters 2026 with the support of a large influx of bank credit that suggests another year of strong economic growth. Bank credit growth has been weak the past two years amidst the historically aggressive rate hike cycle, but surg
The market is underpricing the potential for President Trump to get more Fed cuts. Short term interest rate futures have consistently priced the trough of the cutting cycle at around 3%, regardless of Trump's aggressive demands or the weake
A politicized Fed is unlikely to lead to higher yields because longer dated yields are becoming more connected to the expected path of Fed policy. Even without a new Chair, the Fed's party line has quietly shifted towards that of a producti