Update to the Hormuz LNG supply model

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Following user feedback, I have implemented several major improvements to the Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model, which was released on Tuesday alongside a free-to-read Deep Dive.The biggest single change is a more dynamic treatment of how Hormuz LNG transits might evolve. The first iteration of the model allowed only a single ‘Hormuz reopening’ percentage cap and date, as if Hormuz flows would remain in a fixed state forever. In hindsight, this was unrealistic.The new iteration allows users to set two key parameters: first, an initial partial reopening date from which exports resume at a user-defined percentage cap; and second, a final full reopening date when Hormuz LNG transits return to 100%. The model plots a smooth recovery curve between the two.Source: Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact ModelUsers can now model different ramp-up scenarios for the reopening of Hormuz. If you think all sides in the conflict are strongly motivated to agree a peace settlement and restore Hormuz shipments quickly, you can model that. Or maybe you see diplomacy failing and open conflict hindering commercial shipping through the Strait for many years. You can model that too.The resultant supply projections from different scenarios vary wildly, which I find valuable for understanding the profoundly dynamic situation confronting Middle East exporters.My own view is that partial Hormuz LNG transits could resume at around 10% from September 2026, followed by a gradual restoration of flows to 100% in mid-2028. So I set the model to default to these.Source: Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Mode…