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NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-06-06
Why Europe should put up trade barriers against Chinese goods

Photo by Rohan Dixit on UnsplashAs regular readers of this blog know, I’m pretty ambivalent about trade barriers as an economic policy. On one hand I think targeted tariffs and other trade barriers can be used to protect strategic industrie

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-06-04
I'm kind of over the whole "Anti-monopoly" movement

For many years, I was a big proponent of the idea that increased market power was harming the U.S. economy in various ways. In the 2010s, in the economics world, circumstantial evidence began piling up that implicated increased industrial c

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-06-02
How much more software do we really need?

So, Anthropic is going to IPO! The company is valued at almost $1 trillion, so this is going to be one of the biggest IPOs in history — the only other competitor being SpaceX, which is also set to go public soon. It’ll be one of the largest

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-31
The way we treat pigs is a sin

Photo by Humane Society via Wikimedia CommonsI consider myself a pretty good and decent guy, overall. I don’t commit crimes. I’m nice to the people I meet. I help out my friends. I take good care of my pet rabbit, and I donate lots of money

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-29
America needs liberal nationalism back

Back when I started blogging in 2011, I saw my main function as technocratic — I would discuss policy ideas with other intellectual econ types, and wise policymakers at the Fed, in Congress, or in the Obama administration might put those id

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-27
Your future job will be to keep AI on task

“Reason is, and ought only to be the slave of the passions, and can never pretend to any other office than to serve and obey them.” — David HumeIf you’re of a certain generation,1 you’ve probably seen the movie Office Space. If you haven’t,

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-25
Are you tired of the Trump era yet?

Photo by Tim Mossholder on UnsplashI get a lot of flak from progressives for being a “both sides” kind of commentator. I spend a fair amount of time criticizing leftist ideology and expounding on the very real failures of progressive govern

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-23
America is heading for a debtpocalypse

Photo by Alice Pasqual on UnsplashThere is a pernicious and persistent pattern among many partisan pundits and politicians, pertaining to public debt. When their own party is in power, they minimize or ignore the problem, but as soon as the

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-21
Roundup #82: Staring in wonder at the world

Photo by NASA via Wikimedia CommonsI waited too long to do this roundup, and the amount of interesting stuff built up to truly vast proportions. So let’s get right to it.1. Crime is down!I often get annoyed with people who trumpet falling c

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-19
All non-drone militaries are obsolete

Drone warfare has been a fascination of mine for a very long time. When I read Daphne du Maurier’s “The Birds” as a kid, I imagined what would happen if the attacking swarms were mechanical birds, controlled with AI. When I read about Japan

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-17
Dating advice for men

Photo by Instant Vantage, CC BY-SA 2.0Well this is a strange thing to write about on an economics blog, isn’t it? When I started this blog, I made a deal with myself that I’d write about whatever I felt like writing about, even if it doesn’

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-15
Yes, Europeans are poorer than Americans

Photo by Lawrence Krowdeed on UnsplashWhich society is a better place to live: the U.S., or Europe? This is a very difficult question, for several reasons. For one thing, “Europe” can mean several different things — it can mean the richest

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-13
Trump actually started to decouple America from China

Photo by Jackson Simmer on UnsplashDonald Trump is headed to China with a whole bunch of top U.S. CEOs in tow to talk about trade. There is probably a post to be written here about how Trump is creating a new kind of “America, Inc.” centere

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-11
Tyrants are losing wars

Photo by the Kremlin via Wikimedia.org“And the only way to fight the bastards off in the end is through intelligence.” — Enoch Root“In human life it's also true/ The strong will try to conquer you/ And that is what you must expect/ Unless y

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-09
Do billionaires earn their money?

Cartoon by Joseph Keppler via Wikimedia CommonsA few days ago I wrote a post about why Democrats can’t build a welfare state by taxing only billionaires:I wrote:Once upon a time, class politics pitted the middle class and poor against the u

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-08
Barack Obama was a successful President

Photo by Pete Souza via Wikimedia CommonsI sat down today to write a post about how Barack Obama was a good President, and then I remembered that I already wrote it, back in 2022:What’s funny is that back in 2022, I was aiming my defense of

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-06
Could development economics be more useful?

Source: Jesús Fernández-VillaverdeThe above image is from a recent tweet by University of Pennsylvania economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (henceforth referred to as “JFV”), in which he criticizes the field of development economics for ign

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-05
AI's big messaging pivot

Something big happened in the world of AI the other day: Sam Altman, founder and CEO of OpenAI, and probably the person who’s most commonly regarded as the face of the industry, declared that the purpose of AI is not to take people’s jobs:A

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-02
California's "billionaire tax" is the wrong approach

If I were a conservative, I’d argue against California’s proposed one-time 5% “billionaire tax” on the grounds that it would reduce the incentive for billionaires to invest and create jobs. I’d argue that in order to guard and support the e

NoahpinionNoah Smith2026-05-01
Roundup #81: Back to our regular programming

Hi, folks! My father unfortunately passed away two weeks ago from chemotherapy complications, and as you can imagine, I’ve been busy dealing with that, so posting has been a bit light. My apologies. (I will probably write something about my