America’s Suez moment

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After six bloody and bruising weeks of warfare in and around the Persian Gulf, the United States has agreed to accept Iran’s 10-point ceasefire proposal as a “workable basis” for peace talks. The magnitude of this defeat deserves to be stated plainly.Iran’s demands include formalisation of its control over the Strait of Hormuz, acceptance of uranium enrichment rights, the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, termination of all UN Security Council and IAEA resolutions against Tehran, payment of war damages, withdrawal of US combat forces from the region, and a cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.These are not entirely new demands. They are a bold expansion of the terms Iran pursued throughout the JCPOA era in exchange for allowing IAEA inspectors to access enrichment sites — the same deal Donald Trump tore up in 2018, claiming he could get something better. Sign up for 💥 Energy Flux 💥 Fiercely independent energy market analysis Subscribe Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. His “better deal” looks a lot like surrender, submission and capitulation all wrapped up in one big TACO. The US has spent six weeks depleting munitions, losing servicemembers, burning political capital, and inflicting a global energy price shock — only to arrive at a negotiating position weaker than the one it walked away from.There is zero trust between the warring factions, and nothing in their recent fiery exchanges creates any. Both sides claim victory, and hold diametrically opposed maximalist war objectives. Iran has …