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The Macro CompassAlfonso Peccatiello2025-11-30

The Best Assets You Don't (But Should) Own in 2026

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Analiza AI (Claude Code)

W kolejce do triage'u — analiza pojawi się po najbliższym przebiegu (Claude Code).

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I am not long enough. You are not long enough.The global real-economy money printer is going to run very hot in 2026.The more spendable money global economies print, the higher the nominal growth impulse we are going to get.Central Banks around the world are not going to fight it.In some cases, they are going to apply loose monetary policy even in the face of sustained money printing.The question is: what asset classes benefit the most in this macro setup?We’ll cover that in a second, but first an important message.Let’s take a step back together and look at the macro big picture ahead of us: 1) Money creation in 2026 will be through the roof: fiscal from US (OBBB), Germany, Japan, Korea etc + AI Capex will contribute to money printing; 2) Central Banks around the world will not be fighting this at all – if anything, they are net loose; 3) Housing disinflation will help US core inflation sit in the 2.5-3.0% area for a while longer; 4) The setup is: nominal growth at 5%+, Central Banks neutral or loose, ongoing global money printing; In 2025, net fiscal deficits and private sector leverage (read: money printing) around the world added $8.1 trillion (!) of new inflationary money to global economies.If we look at 2026, more fiscal stimulus and more debt-funded AI capex will take place.The global real-economy money printer will continue to go BRRR.For your reference, here is our projection for the 2026 German money printing activities based on their large fiscal stimulus:Global money printing correlates with nominal growth: the more aggressively we create new real-economy money…