What To Buy For A Macro Portfolio In 2025

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Good morning, this is Alf - welcome back to The Macro Compass!I wish you a fantastic year ahead: follow your passions, keep learning, and don’t drink cappuccino after 11am.In this macro piece, we will cover the biggest market mover for H1 2025: tariffs.We will also investigate what’s the most attractive asset class today.But before we start, here is a present for you to kickstart this new year.Early next week, I’ll publish my top 3 macro trade ideas for 2025.If you want to:Read my macro research multiple times per week;Have access to my long-term macro ETF portfolio;Receive all my tactical trade ideas (including next week’s)You can now sign up to the premium TMC tier for 30% OFF.For the first 30 users, 30% OFF. First come, first serve.Discount Code ‘‘HNY’’. Use the link below:GET ME 30% OFFNow, to the piece.What if tariffs end up being non-inflationary and negative for growth?And what if Trump focuses on short-term painful policies first in H1, to then deliver tax cuts in H2?Consensus isn’t ready for this.Let’s disentangle the thought process behind the concept of ‘’disinflationary tariffs’’.This paper from the new Council of Economic Advisor (CEA) Chair Steve Miran covers it – I’ll summarize.The main idea is very simple.In his previous term, the Trump administration increased the effective tariff rate on Chinese imports by 18%.During the same time span, the US Dollar appreciated by 14% against the Chinese currency.It basically means the after-tariff price in USD to import Chinese goods was almost unchanged.As long as the USD appreciates, US consumers aren’t going to feel m…