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Hi everyone - this is Alf.I hope you're having a great day.Alongside with running my hedge fund, I work as a consultant and external advisor for some of the largest pension funds, asset managers, banks and funds in the world.Arrangements are flexible: from access to my institutional research + daily access to me all the way to monthly or quarterly calls and sitting through your investment committees.If you think I could add value to your firm, simply reach out at:alf@themacrocompass.comPlease state your name, company, and how you think I could help.And now, to today's macro research piece.Let’s start this macro piece with a little game.Below you find two tables representing 3 consecutive prints of core CPI in the US including its subcomponents: core goods and core services (with a separate mention for ‘’supercore’’ CPI).Without using Bloomberg or Google, are you able to tell which 3-month core CPI streak belongs to the pre-pandemic period and which one to today?I wasn’t, and some of the hedge fund PMs I asked the same question ended up making a mistake.In both cases, core CPI MoM prints were averaging 0.15-0.20 which is broadly in line with the annual 2% inflation target and the subcomponents painted a picture of 0% goods inflation with core and super-core responsible for the quite muted inflationary pressures.The answer: section 2 covers the Jun-Aug 2019 period, and section 1 shows Core CPI for Mar-May 2025.I think we should take some time to reflect on this.In early 2019, Powell pivoted dovish with a clear speech highlighting the tightening cycle was over and the Fed was …