Here Are My Top Macro Ideas

Treść źródłowa

Hi everybody, Alf here - welcome back to The Macro Compass!Before we go into today’s piece, a short announcement.I advise several institutional investors on a bespoke basis.Clients include Canadian pension funds, one of the biggest tech companies around, and top 3 multimanager hedge funds in the world.Services go from sitting on the investment committee as an independent advisor, to constructing specific macro portfolios/hedging programs and consulting on a day-to-day basis (i.e. act as their independent macro analyst).Are you are interested in my macro advisory services?Please shoot an email with your request at: alf@themacrocompass.comFair warning: it’s not cheap, and it’s only for institutional investors.Now, to the piece.The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US stock indexes, and certain emerging markets like Chile or Poland are doing even better. My main thesis for the first half of the year remains to be positioned with an ‘’International Risk Parity’’ portfolio: long US bonds, and long stocks around the world.Let’s take a look at why.The chart above shows that the US growth exceptionalism might be over. The Aggregate Income Growth series is a great proxy for nominal growth in real time: it includes private sector job creation, workweek hours, and wage growth – effectively reflecting the growth rate of nominal income US workers are bringing home. Today, it sits at 4.5% which is exactly the average level it recorded in 2014-2019.These are the Goldilocks growth condi…