Cross Asset Positioning and Equity Long Short Positioning Inside the AI Compression Trade

Treść źródłowa

Today I went deep on cross asset vol, equity long short positioning, carry trades, and CTA flows. Vol has collapsed across equities, rates, and FX simultaneously, which mechanically forces vol targeting and risk parity funds to lever up into the same names. The proprietary macro research for paid subscribers is just below the summary and slide deck from today’s livestream. I also provided the code for the internal STIR model I run. LIVESTREAM RECORDING FROM TODAY:Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points1. Until you break a multi day consolidation range to the downside, this trend does not turn. Pulling back into a prior consolidation range and finding bids off trapped sellers is the same playbook we have seen for two months. There are no inventory longs trapped overhead. The range below is full of trapped sellers who become future buyers as they cover. That dynamic flips supply and demand in a single session, which is why every micro dip rips back to highs within 24 hours. - 2. A liquidation break is the most bullish setup in a maturing trend, not the bearish one. When sellers force a 1.5 to 2 percent whoosh through prior consolidation ranges, longs puke and shorts cover. That clears the supply overhead and creates a vacuum. The next leg up has no resistance because the weak hands are gone. If you have been locked out of this rally, that liquidation break is the buyable opportunity.- 3. Cross asset vol has collapsed across the VIX, MOVE, and CVIX simultaneously, and the correlation between them is rising. When equity vol, rate vol, and FX vol all collapse together, that is a…