Manias, Panics, and Positioning: The Bubble Playbook

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Today, Jaymes and I broke down 200 years of bear market history, the three archetypes of corrections, and why the current setup has a flavor of every major historical bear market without being a clean copy of any of them. Most people misdiagnose the regime they are in and then take positions that hurt them, which is why understanding the actual drivers matters more than fitting today into a clean historical analog. By the end of this livestream recording, you will know how to diagnose the regime, where the asymmetric risk actually sits, and why PURR remains my largest concentrated bet even after the Hyperliquid ETF launches.LIVESTREAM RECORDING FROM TODAY: Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points1. All exceptional returns exist in the tails. Singles keep your seat at the table, tails are how you actually compound. The entire industry is structured around hedging tails so they do not have to think about them. If you are in the business of risk taking, you know returns come from extreme events.2. Bear markets come in three archetypes: cyclical, event driven, and structural. These are mental models for breaking down drivers, not rules markets must obey. The current setup has a flavor of all three plus the seventies inflation overlay.3. Diagnose the system or you cannot prescribe a position. Most people misdiagnose the regime and then take positions that hurt them. The right question is what are the actual drivers, not which historical analog do I want to fit this into.4. Today’s setup is sovereign balance sheet risk, not commercial balance sheet risk. 2008 was commercial levera…