Is China Trying to Become the Next World Power and Attacking Global Markets Through Economic Warfare

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Every macro thesis you read about China comes back to one question: can the yuan replace the dollar. The answer is no, and the reason is so structural that most analysts who get this wrong are working from a frame that does not actually describe how global trade functions. In today’s stream, Jaymes and I walked through what China is actually doing, why the yuan suppression playbook is functional economic warfare, and what that means for the cross-border flows that determine where your portfolio gets repriced over the next twelve months. By the end of this, you will know which narratives to ignore, which data points actually move markets, and how to position around the Trump-Xi backroom outcomes that the broader market is still mispricing.LIVESTREAM RECORDING FROM TODAY:Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points1. Time lags are the structural feature of complex macro systems and the current oil-to-rates transmission is the cleanest example. Crude spiked, rates lagged, and now rates are catching up while crude consolidates. The headline-to-core CPI question is what determines whether the lag completes or unwinds.2. Interest rates rising and equities not falling is the cleanest resilience signal of the cycle. The S&P pulled back to the CPI level on the rate impulse, which is exactly the level we mapped last week. Anyone who says rates up equals equities down is ignoring the data of the entire trend.3. IGV outperforming SMH on the day is the equity long short positioning unwind playing out in real time. Hedge funds are short software and long hardware. The unwind is going to be IG…