NVDA Earnings Is THE Catalyst For This Week

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Today, Jaymes and I broke down the dispersion between semiconductors and software, the cybersecurity unwind in Palo Alto and CrowdStrike confirming the February report, and the full earnings setup for Nvidia, Intuit, Workday, Home Depot, and Lowe's this week. The SMH ETF is melting up with implied vol rising at the same time as price rises, which is the commodity-like price action that only happens when capital is forced to participate. Inflation risk is still greater than recession risk, stocks over bonds remains the framework, and the entire question of the week is whether Nvidia delivers the AI capex affirmation the market needs.LIVESTREAM RECORDING FROM TODAY:Today’s Livestream: Main Talking Points1. The SMH ETF is functioning like a commodity with implied vol rising alongside price. In a normal equity setup, vol rises when price falls. In SMH right now, vol is rising as price rises, which is the same dynamic crude shows when traders are forced to buy calls to cover exposure. Companies and capital cannot afford to not be long the AI build out, which mechanically forces them into the same names. That is a commodity flow pattern overlaid on equities.2. The IGV dispersion thesis is playing out exactly as I laid out in the February report on cybersecurity. Palo Alto and CrowdStrike were sold indiscriminately with the broader software complex on the AI disruption thesis. Both are now ripping to new highs as the dispersion separates winners from losers. The names with proprietary data moats are emerging as the winners. The ones without are staying suppressed.3. IGV implied vo…