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EM FX MacroStephen Elgie2025-04-13

PAXXIT

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Analiza AI (Claude Code)

W kolejce do triage'u — analiza pojawi się po najbliższym przebiegu (Claude Code).

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Elgie holiday snapSubscribe nowEpcot, Rockets, and the Return of the Trump PutA badly timed family holiday to Florida this past week left me watching markets through a Chinese assembled iPhone, mainly in queues for rides at Disney. Being flung around at high speed in the dark probably sounds a lot like what most traders were experiencing last week.My kids met an America that sits in strong contrast to the one they watch from home. At the Kennedy space centre, they saw images of bravery and common purpose. At Epcot, they saw optimism about the future and a carefully choreographed illusion of global harmony. Seeing America at its greatest, they could finally understand the desire for a MAGA message. Out there in markets, efforts seemingly to make America a manufacturing powerhouse again were going down badly. Perhaps it wasn’t optimal to deliver tariffs that looked like they were calculated by the intern and announced in the style of a playground bully. At NASA, listening to the words of some great American leaders, the contrast couldn’t have been starker. Some Americans need to be reminded that they were “not descended from fearful men”.In response to the tariff announcements, the early US forecast revisions were to ratchet higher inflation and trample on growth. The childish delivery was almost guaranteed to deliver some retaliation. Proud nations can’t be seen to cower in front of a bully, and China, the world’s largest economy on PPP adjusted terms, was never likely to do so. Before Trump blinked, we had gotten to the point where positions were thrown out regardless of me…