Three-Body Macro Chaos

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Subscribe nowSitting in the White House Oval Office, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa kept his composure while Donald Trump casually tossed false claims of genocide at him. The man who rails against fake news once again supported his accusations with the flimsiest of footage, this time featuring Julius Malema, a politician firmly on the margins of power in South Africa. The spectacle was, even by Trumpian standards, uniquely unsettling. The author of Trump Gaza, who eagerly entertains the idea that free speech has evaporated in my own country, the UK, now sees genocide in perhaps the only part of Africa he can reliably name. It also suits the project to nod in the direction of great replacement theory advocates. The performance was another example of the gravitational distortions now shaping global macro.Because Trump is not just a political actor. He is the director of one of the three destabilising forces currently tugging at the global system, and the architect of another. This creates what might best be described as a Three-Body Macro Problem. Like Liu Cixin’s Trisolaran world, markets now orbit a system with no stable solution: only shifting alignments, temporary calm, and abrupt disruption.The three bodies are as follows.First, the US growth–inflation tradeoff, growing harder to manage as fiscal impulse collides with rate expectations.Second, Trump’s policy chaos—fiscal, tariff, and diplomatic decisions driven by Trump’s ego and his priors.And third, the global recoil—a slow but deepening shift in how foreign capital views the US. Not just as a market, but as a…