Goods inflation and the tariffs

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At the July FOMC press conference, Chair Powell noted in his opening statement that inflation “readings are little changed from the beginning of the year, although the underlying composition of price changes has shifted: services inflation has continued to ease, while increased tariffs are pushing up prices in some categories of goods.”Which categories of goods? And by how much?Tariff impact by productComparing the estimated tariff impact (in short: the tariff on imports for that product from customs data multiplied by the estimated import content of final consumption thanks to researchers at Boston Fed) with the PCE inflation since April provides a measure of the impact to date.And splitting core goods into 20 different sub-categories, 11 of the 20 categories (about 50% by weight) can be seen reacting to tariffs so far, the rest are yet to do so.Two of the sub-categories are shown below as an example, where cumulative PCE is contrasted with the estimated tariff impact. New motor vehicles have seen no inflation uplift since March and are running below the pre-pandemic norm through June. In contrast, with a short lag, household appliances have responded to the tariff strongly in May and June to nearly pass on the estimated tariff cost in full.Looking at the full range of products, as in the next chart, the ratio of the inflation outcome from March to June over the estimated tariff impact for that category over this period varies from more than 100% for some products (household supplies, for example), 50%-100% inflation for others (like sporting equipment) while goods such as…