The Growth Impulse from the Data Center Boom

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It is convenient that Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta all reported their 2026Q1 results the night before the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published its initial estimate of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in January-March 2026. Those four providers of cloud computing services, plus Oracle, which reported slightly earlier, together reported about $150 billion in capital spending in 2026Q1. That capex was equivalent to about 2% of the value of all of the goods and services produced within the U.S. in the first three months of 2026.As recently as 2025Q1, total capex by the big five cloud companies was under $80 billion, or 1% of U.S. GDP. Put another way, the growth in their combined capex from 2025Q1 to 2026Q1 would appear to have contributed about 1 percentage point to the total 6% increase in U.S. GDP (in dollar terms) over those 12 months. Go back slightly further and the big five were spending only about $40 billion/quarter, equivalent to roughly 0.5% of U.S. GDP. With the exception of Amazon, these companies were, until recently, known for being able to generate outsize returns without needing to invest much in physical assets. Now, thanks to their contributions to America’s data center buildout, they are the five largest capital spenders in the entire S&P 500.All financial statements data come from Koyfin. I have been using them for years to get data on markets and companies. Readers of The Overshoot are eligible for discounted subscriptions or a free trial using this link.This shift is big enough to affect the overall U.S. macro data.But it is far less clear …