Iran as the "Bridgehead" for Securing China’s Western Frontier | by Zhang Wenmu

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With Iran’s future in question, we found this 2013 article by Zhang Wenmu, an old-school strategist from Beihang University, worth revisiting. One conclusion from our briefing on Chinese reactions to the recent US-Israeli strikes is that many analysts appear relatively unworried about the Iranian regime’s immediate prospects. Zhang offers a contrasting perspective—albeit one from over a decade ago—casting Iran as a strategic barrier to NATO’s eastward expansion and the westernmost link in the Zagros–Hindu Kush–Himalaya chain that has historically shielded China from outside powers’ eastward advance. That barrier has not yet collapsed, but it appears more vulnerable now than it has in years. Read in that light, this piece lands rather differently today. — Jacob MardellKey PointsThe Zagros–Hindu Kush–Himalaya chain links the Iranian Plateau to China’s western frontier, making Iran the outermost shield of China’s western security.Iranian Plateau states, not India, historically absorbed and blunted west-to-east pressure from outside powers before it could reach China’s western approaches.Afghan resistance and the Himalayan barrier are proof that even British India could not effectively project land power into China’s western frontier.India, lying outside this highland barrier and dominated by lower terrain, is more vulnerable to invasion and less strategically consequential for China’s security.Today, the Iranian Plateau states are resisting and wearing down “NATO’s eastward expansion” (北约东扩), giving them greater strategic value for China than India.The AuthorName: Zhang Wenmu …