Protracted War in the Middle East: Strategic Opportunity for China

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Intellisia is not a state-linked think tank, but nor is it a fringe outlet. Founded in 2015 by Jinan University professor Chen Dingding, it presents itself as one of China’s early “new-type” independent think tanks and enjoys a measure of standing within that world.What makes this short, memo-like analysis especially striking, however, is not just its argument but its fate: it was swiftly censored after publication. Chinese commentary has often framed US policy mistakes as strategic opportunities for China, but the live war in Iran seems to be more politically delicate terrain. Presumably, any suggestion that a prolonged Middle East war could amount to a strategic opportunity for China sits awkwardly with Beijing’s preferred self-portrait as a neutral mediator and responsible great power.In past newsletters, we have noted cautious arguments for a more proactive and assertive foreign policy, but the prevailing strategic instinct in the volatile early months of Trump 2.0 has been that “China should keep doing China well” while chaos unfolds elsewhere.The Intellisia piece pushes that logic a step further, arguing that chaos is not simply something for China to endure, but something from which it can profit.The article argues, predictably enough, that “a protracted Middle East conflict would systematically drain the military, diplomatic and financial resources of the United States”. But it also advances a more developed case that protracted war in Iran will reroute capital, energy routes, and supply chains in Beijing’s favour.Its closing prescription is “trading with the sword …