How China turns predictability into power

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Foreign Affairs: China is Winning by WaitingIn my new piece for Foreign Affairs, I argue that anyone expecting a charm offensive from Beijing will be disappointed. China has long used carrots and sticks to get what it wants. And with its growing economic and technological strength, those carrots and sticks have only grown larger, from manufacturing investment to export controls. In many ways, Beijing pursues a transactional approach to geopolitics like Trump, eschewing lofty values for incentives and dealmaking. But in contrast to Trump’s uncertainty and chaos, China offers predictability. This is why many countries—including some of America’s closest allies like Canada and Britain—are turning to China.Here’s the opening:“One of the greatest advantages the United States has over China has been its soft power—the ability to persuade other countries, particularly allies and partners, to go along with its wants without having to resort to coercion. For decades, other countries have made sacrifices on behalf of the United States because they believed they were better off working with Washington than Beijing in the long run. This was the ultimate win-win for the United States and its partners. Together, they prospered through collective defense, integrated markets, and coordinated action on common challenges, including dealing with China.U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to put an end to much of that cooperation. The United States, once the bedrock of the international system, is now a major source of geopolitical instability. Trump launched a global trade war, slapping…