China's technology long game

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Note: This piece has also been cross-posted on ChinaTalk.Technology is a central focus of China’s new 15th Five-Year Plan. China is aiming to develop “strategic emerging industries” (战略性新兴产业) such as robotics and smart EVs as well as “future industries” (未来产业) such as quantum, fusion, brain-computer interfaces, 6G, and embodied AI. With the end of catch-up economic growth and the real estate boom, China is searching for new engines of future growth—so-called “new quality productive forces” (新质生产力)—that will allow China to attain the per capita income of a “moderately developed country” (中等发达国家) by 2035.But a focus on technology is not new for China. And China’s obsession with science and technology did not start with Xi Jinping. Hu Jintao, Jiang Zemin, and Deng Xiaoping all viewed technology as key to China’s development. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping gave a famous speech at China’s National Science Conference where he said:The key to the Four Modernizations is the modernization of science and technology. Without modern science and technology, it is impossible to build modern agriculture, modern industry, and modern national defense. Without the rapid development of science and technology, there can be no rapid development of the national economy.四个现代化，关键是科学技术的现代化。没有现代科学技术，就不可能建设现代农业、现代工业、现代国防。没有科学技术的高速度发展，也就不可能有国民经济的高速度发展。That year, China launched the “National Science & Technology Development Plan, 1978-1985” (1978-1985年全国科学技术发展规划纲要), which sought to reform China’s scientific institutions in the wake of the Cultural Revolution and target key technologies, such as semiconductors,…