Oil & Iran War Context Weekly (W15)

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Happy Friday, Oil Watchers!Every week, I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely.Also a reminder that paid subscribers can access the latest weekly update of the detailed 40-page PDF Market Positioning Data Deck at the bottom of this report.This week I joined the Loonie Hour (Video) and Shift Key (Podcast), and you can also find more of my thoughts about the evolving situation in the New Statesman (Print) and on CBC Power & Politics (Video).On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I was joined by John Love, CEO of USCF Investments to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the United States Oil Fund (USO), widely considered the largest oil exchange traded product (ETP). We discussed the record backwardation in WTI, volatility parallels to April 2020, and US producers remaining cautious due to the inability to lock in high spot prices on the back end of the futures curve.Become a paid subscriber today to read the full Oil Context Weekly report every Friday and join me in my hunt for ever-deeper oil market context.If you’re already subscribed and/or appreciate the free chart and summary, hitting the LIKE button is one of the best ways to support my ongoing research.SummaryFlat Prices collapsed by more than $14/bbl following the ceasefire announcement, marking the largest weekly decline since the start of the Iran War; Brent prompt futures (June delivery) are now sitting around $97/bbl while Dated Brent (…