Oil & Iran War Context Weekly (W16)

Treść źródłowa

Happy Friday, Oil Watchers!Every week, I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely.Also a reminder that paid subscribers can access the latest weekly update of the detailed 40-page PDF Market Positioning Data Deck at the bottom of this report.In the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I spoke with Adi Imsirovic, a long-time oil trader who now lectures at the University of Oxford and has written many books on the history of oil trading, the mechanics of the Brent crude complex, and the theory of price discovery. Our discussion focused on the connection between the physical and financial (i.e., paper) oil markets and what record-breaking backwardation means for the oil market.This week, I spoke with MacroVoices (podcast, 48:00-forward), Facts vs Feelings (video), Competent Man (video), MacroHive (podcast), and Wall Street Journal (print).Become a paid subscriber today to read the full Oil Context Weekly report every Friday and join me in my hunt for ever-deeper oil market context.If you’re already subscribed and/or appreciate the free chart and summary, hitting the LIKE button is one of the best ways to support my ongoing research.SummaryFlat Prices fell by ~$5/bbl for Brent to finish just above $90/bbl following a violent, near $10/bbl rout in crude prices that followed an Iranian announcement that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” (many caveats, discussed below).Timespreads pulle…