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Commodity ContextRory Johnston2026-04-29

Global Oil Data Deck (April 2026)

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This 73-page April 2026 edition of my monthly data-dense and visualization-heavy Global Oil Data Deck series (attached PDF below) is exclusive to paid Commodity Context subscribers.In addition to our regular monthly tracking, this edition of the Global Oil Data Deck also explores some contextual analysis of how the roughly one billion barrels of guaranteed supply loss fits into the total pool of stocks and, more importantly, the far smaller pool of accessible commercial inventories.Member Exclusive: Context Call on Tuesday, May 5, 2026Subscribe for details and registration link; paid subscribers will find link below paywallBecome a paid subscriber today to view the full Global Oil Data Deck report and join me in my hunt for ever-deeper oil & gas market context.If you’re already subscribed and/or like the free summary bullets, hitting the LIKE button is one of the best ways to support my research.OverviewThe global liquids market continued to tighten through February, falling to the least oversupplied level since last June at the peak of summer demand. This was already tighter than most had expected the oil market to be in Q1, and leaves the global oil market in an even more precarious position than would have been anticipated heading into the Iran War, the stoppage of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and the largest supply shock in the oil market’s history.Iran War Inventory ImpactsAt this stage of the Iran War, we have already, more or less, guaranteed a net loss of roughly 1 billion barrels of unproduced Middle Eastern barrels that we would have otherwise been expect…