Oil & Iran War Context Weekly (W20)

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Happy Friday, Oil Watchers!Every week, I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely.Also a reminder that paid subscribers can access the latest weekly update of the detailed 40-page PDF Market Positioning Data Deck at the bottom of this report.This week, I joined Jimmy Connors of Bloor Street Capital (video) and MacroVoices (podcast, 56:00 onward).Become a paid subscriber today to read the full Oil Context Weekly report every Friday and join me in my hunt for ever-deeper oil market context.If you’re already subscribed and/or appreciate the free chart and summary, hitting the LIKE button is one of the best ways to support my ongoing research.SummaryFlat Prices rose ~$8/bbl for Brent to finish just shy of $110/bbl as last week’s optimism that a deal might be reached began to fade amidst deadlocked US-Iran talks and no meaningful progress coming out of Trump’s trip to China this week.Timespreads bottomed on Monday and then gradually grinded higher, repeating the well-trodden path of buyer wariness through the first half of the month before being forced to bid more aggressively ahead of contract expiry; the back of the curve, too, continues to rerate higher as global inventories are depleted.Inventories data was mixed but still leaned bullish given another large US draw and ARA European stocks down to ever more precarious seasonal levels; Singaporean stocks notched a small build after three consecutive…