[FREE] A Beginner’s Guide to Reopening the Strait

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Hello, Commodity Context subscribers!Our latest contribution to the Dispatch Energy newsletter, A Beginner’s Guide to Reopening the Strait, is reprinted in full below. You can also listen to the story via the recorded voiceover.If you enjoy this free public report you’ll love the deeper oil market research we publish regularly at Commodity Context—subscribe and join us in our hunt for ever-deeper oil market context.Welcome to Dispatch Energy! For weeks, diplomatic efforts to extend the ceasefire in Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz have floundered, with the Islamic Republic threatening to call off talks altogether in response to the latest round of fighting between Israel and its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah. Even if Washington and Tehran do reach another memorandum of understanding (MOU) to halt the conflict soon, fully restoring energy shipments through the strait could take months or more.Regardless of whether the reopening of the strait begins next week, next month, or next year, it is valuable to think through the arduous process of unwinding the Iran war shock. Let’s dig in.Vessels off the coast of Bandar Abbas, Iran, along the Strait of Hormuz. (Photo by AMIRHOSSEIN KHORGOOEI / ISNA / AFP via Getty Images)It’s worth noting at the outset that the first ships out of the Strait of Hormuz will carry what is now effectively a stockpile, not fresh flows. Fewer than half of the 2,000 captive ships are the large merchant vessels like tankers, bulk carriers, or container ships. Only about 200 of those are tankers, down from a peak of around 250 that were initially stranded, a…