Oil & Iran War Context Weekly (W23)

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Happy Friday, Oil Watchers!Every week, I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely.Also a reminder that paid subscribers can access the latest weekly update of the detailed 40-page PDF Market Positioning Data Deck at the bottom of this report.I had the opportunity to rejoin Erik Townsend on the MacroVoices podcast for another update on how I’m thinking about the Iran War and the Hormuz oil shock—and why prices aren’t higher! (audio, 46:30-forward). I also joined Agelica Oung on the Taipology podcast to talk about China’s role in the crisis response so far (and lots more on that in this week’s writeup below). I spoke with the Financial Post to talk about the 1.5 billion Middle Eastern barrels we can already count as lost so far in the crisis.Become a paid subscriber today to read the full Oil Context Weekly report every Friday and join me in my hunt for ever-deeper oil market context.If you’re already subscribed and/or appreciate the free chart and summary, hitting the LIKE button is one of the best ways to support my ongoing research.SummaryFlat Prices rose through Wednesday before easing back, ending ~$1/bbl higher as the market remains in a perilous limbo, awaiting any sign of progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran.Timespreads restrengthened from last week’s end-of-month swoon as all major crude benchmarks are holding $2-3/bbl in prompt backwardation; that’s substantially weaker …