Macartney to Mar-a-Lago

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Julian Gewirtz, former Biden administration China official, now at Columbia, joins me to chat about the Xi-Trump visit and all things US-China. Matt Sheehan, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, drops by to give his takes on the AI angle.We cover:What to expect (and not expect) from the Trump-Xi “stalemate summit”Historical echoes from the 1793 Macartney mission and the 1972 Nixon-Kissinger opening: summit optics, status games, and the choreography of power.Taiwan: arms sales, declaratory language, and Beijing’s long game on Taiwanese morale and politics.The good and bad case for China in the Iran conflict, and how Chinese officials may be reading America’s military commitments, political cohesion, and staying power.The US-China AI safety conversation after Mythos, China’s approach to frontier AI risks, and the control, harness, govern playbook for emerging technologies.Listen now on your favorite podcast app. Seriously, listen! Way more people subscribe to this newsletter than listen to the podcast directly. But Julian has a wonderfully sonorous voice. By just reading the transcript you will be missing out!Leverage, Political Will, and DealsJordan: Let’s talk about leverage between the two countries and the two leaders. What’s the right way to think about this?Julian Gewirtz: President Trump is going to China in just a few days. This question of leverage is at the center of everything for both sides.Historically, we’ve thought that the United States has a lot of leverage over China, and we can exert that leverage and that also shapes the strateg…