POP MART: no longer a playground for hedge funds, but interesting for long money?

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Seasoned Baiguan subscribers will remember that we have been covering the story of POP MART from the very early on.As early as August 2024, right before POP MART’s shares really took off, we first commented on its stellar growth based on our own data. In June 2025, took a deep dive into the consumer psychology around this company, including her own personal conversion as a consumer.The stock price of POP MART recently had a major setback. After its annual earnings announcement, the stock has tanked by more than 30% over five sessions, wiping out around HK$100 billion in market value.Three main reasons explained this market’s sudden lack of confidence. First, the market is concerned that the overseas business performed worse than expected. Second, there are concerns that POP MART relies too much on a single IP, namely Labubu (The Monsters). Third, Wang Ning, the founder and CEO, gave an ultra-conservative guidance of “no less than 20% growth” during the earnings release.In the first half of 2025, overseas revenue skyrocketed 440% year over year. However, in the second half of the year, the overseas revenue growth rate “slowed down” to 243% year over year.240%+ growth is certainly slower than 440%+ growth, but we can’t help but feel that calling this a “deceleration” runs the risk of nitpicking. POP MART’s phenomenally explosive global growth story was a huge surprise for everyone in 2025. The market was naive to build a linear extrapolation of future growth rates from this level in the first place, and it is only natural to expect that, after such triple-digit hyper-growth, …