Calculus Shifts

Treść źródłowa

In this report: Iran’s conditional Hormuz reopening, China’s refusal to curtail Iranian purchases, Saudi Arabia’s Helsinki-style regional framework, and the structural shifts reshaping Middle East energy flows.BRENT LAST WEEK +7.87% ($7.97) for the week. Open $104 High $109.75 Low $102.81 Close $109.26ArticlesAraghchi Says Iran Opposes Nuclear Weapons, Pledges Hormuz SecuritySaudi Arabia floats Middle Eastern non-aggression pact with IranChina demand destruction 8% since mid-MarchExclusive: Iraq, Pakistan strike energy deals with IranUAE’s new oil pipeline push to double export capacity, bypassing HormuzOPEC Signals Unity After U.A.E. Exit With Pledge to Boost Oil OutputSource: Newsquawk.comViewIt is approx 76 days since Israel bombed Iran, thus initiating joint strategic preemptive strikes by Israel and The US. In that time, we have seen 13.8mbpd production shut in, export losses exceed 13.8mbpd, with cumulative supply losses of 360 mb in March, 440mb for April and 195mb in May so far. Total 995mb lost in 2.5months. 1 Billion gone and The US PPI came in during the week at 6% YOY, with Euro Zone inflation high at 3% and set to move higher. The medium term effects are now here. Since Wednesday, we have had 30 ships (mainly Chinese) successfully transit The SOH. A well played move from President Xi, knowing that the US blockade would not force them back while he and Trump were meeting. The Market Wednesday and Thursday knew about these 30 ships. The Brent/WTI spread took a small dive. Brent finished Thursday up slightly. The market has clearly sold the rumour of the opening a…