Oil bears bet Hormuz crisis is mostly over
źródło ↗John Kemp raportuje, że fundusze hedgingowe ósmy raz w ostatnich dziewięciu tygodniach redukują pozycje w Brent (do 253 mln baryłek, najniżej od 18 tygodni), a krótkie pozycje wzrosły ponad trzykrotnie do 140 mln baryłek — wszystko w oczekiwaniu, że eksport ropy przez Cieśninę Ormuz zostanie wznowiony mimo kruchego zawieszenia broni i strategii USA „bombardowanie-przy-negocjacjach”. Kemp zwraca uwagę na napięcie: zapasy ropy szybko się kurczą, a inwestorzy zachowują się tak, jakby drawdown miał wkrótce się skończyć dzięki większemu przepływowi przez Ormuz.
Eksport ropy przez Cieśninę Ormuz zostanie wznowiony, co zatrzyma spadek zapasów i będzie ciążyć cenom Brent w najbliższych miesiącach.
implikacja: Brent short
Treść źródłowa
7 June 2026 Investors have cut their position in Brent again to the lowest for eighteen weeks amid increasing confidence at least some oil exports will resume through the Strait of Hormuz despite an increasingly fragile ceasefire. The United States has begun to encourage some tankers to transit the Strait by offering air cover and attacking shore-based radars, missile batteries and drone launch sites on Iran’s side of the waterway. The U.S. government appears to be pursuing a mixed strategy of bombing-while-negotiating to pressure Iran into accepting a deal while at the same time degrading Iran’s ability to threaten shipping in case the talks fail. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of another 26 million barrels in the ICE Brent crude futures and options contract over the seven days ending on June 2. Fund managers have sold Brent in eight of the most recent nine weeks, reducing their combined position by a total of 177 million barrels since the end of March. As a result, funds held a mildly bullish net position of 253 million barrels (64th percentile for all weeks since 2011) down from an extremely bullish 429 million (92nd percentile) on March 31. Chartbook: Oil positions Short positions betting on a further fall in Brent prices have more than tripled to 140 million barrels from just 40 million at the end of March. Shorts are at the highest since mid-January, shortly after the United States captured Venezuela’s leader and before tensions with Iran started to intensify. Despite the lack of public progress in reaching a negotiated end to the war, and re…