CROSSPOST: DAN DREZNER: The Trump Administration's Incredibly Slow Learning Curve

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Dan’s subhead: These are not very bright people and things got out of hand. My take: when your grand strategy is based on hoping the other side lets you pretend you’ve won, things do indeed easily get out of hand when you confront an adversary who thinks its power depends of being seen as a winner even more than you do. The difference between a decapitation raid in Caracas that was, substantively, a huge victory for the Venezuelan régime and the current state of things in the Persian Gulf:What was the Trump Administration’s thinking and how did it plan for its war on Iran to end anyway? There was no thinking. There was no plan. There still is no plan. There MAY—repeat: MAY—now be thinking. But probably not. Trump careens among:demanding Tehran’s “unconditional surrender”,hinting that he might abruptly declare victory—having “mowed the grass” and leave,expecting collapse of the Iranian regime,expecting the emergence of new leaders who will do a deal on his terms, expecting the emergence of new leaders who will concede to fundamental political and strategic demands,expecting Iran to pretend it has conceded to Trump’s fundamental political and strategic demands.Chaos-monkey foreign policy:Drezner’s WorldA bunch of unedited stuff about international relations, American politics, political economy, the marketplace of ideas, and popular culture written by this Drezner guyBy Daniel W. DreznerCROSSPOST: DAN DREZNER: The Trump Administration’s Incredibly Slow Learning CurveDan DreznerMay 29, 2026<https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-trump-administrations-incredibly> <http://dand…