The Current Balance in This Pause—Not End, But Pause, Perhaps Perpetual Pause—in the War in the Persian Gulf: MOST IMPORTANT THING

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The Trumpists say “victory”; Tehran calls it “reconstruction payments”; the meter on the Strait of Hormuz is running either way; from “maximum pressure” to war indemnities and investment funds, Trump’s Iran adventure is ending in a very expensive defeat…Hold on tight to this:Ian Bremmer; <https://x.com/ianbremmer/status/2060399422186361279>; ‘expected outcome of us/iran agreement:strait opens and blockade dropped immediately.ceasefire extended for 60-daysqatar transfers $6 billion of iranian assets to iran, the united states says it has nothing to do with that transfer (call it a coincidence)us and iran continue (restart) negotiating nuclear issues, probably keep extending the deadline with little progressno meaningful expansion of abraham accords…ShareGive a gift subscriptionAs Noah Smith says:Noah Smith: <https://x.com/Noahpinion/status/2060507078335345115/>: ‘LOL, Trump started a war with Iran, and then ended up paying Iran a war indemnity. Pathetic… You can look at as:the United States paying $6 billion in order to open the Strait of Hormuz—or “Vermouth” as Scott Bessent once called it—to oil shipping for 60 days.the United States paying Iran $6 billion in reparations for its reverse Pearl Harbor attack.Both are valid. Both are true.We are also told that US-Iran nuclear-program status negotiations will “start”. And we can bet that the US and Iran will have contradictory announcements: each declaring “victory”. And in sixty days there will be a new round of negotiations about a further extension of the ceasefire.What, exactly, does the White House say that Iran is agreei…